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Investing in Europe

Investing in the early, uncertain stages of an economic recovery takes guts and discipline. And while risks clearly remain in Europe (Greece, for example), a more aggressive ECB, the declining Euro, lower oil prices, improving credit conditions and even some progress on structural reforms in key countries, all suggest a possible opportunity in Europe for long-term investors.

Economic Expansions and Recessions
The opposite of contagion is containment
  • In 2011 and 2012, just the threat of a Greek exit from the Eurozone was enough to cause risk assets across the board to plunge.
  • But with the market cap of Greek equities 85% below their 2007 peak, with 80% of Greek debt held by the public sector (ECB, IMF, EFSF) and with massive amounts of capital flight already having taken place, the potential for contagion appears more limited today.
  • Moreover, less austerity in the next few years than was endured in the last three remove the brunt of a very difficult headwind for the region.
Discussion Slides
European recovery
Europe: Sovereign yields and fiscal austerity
MSCI EAFE at inflection points

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